The Empty Bubble- Administration Doesn’t Matter

The Oil Crisis of the 70’s. The Iranian Oil Embargo of the 80’s. The S&L Crisis of the 80’s. The Dot Com Bubble. The Housing Bubble.

Are you seeing a trend here?

Every 7–10 years the US experiences a recession. Each time it has been a habit to name the recession by the alleged cause of the recession. Though the name is typically only applied retroactively. “Experts” during the Housing Crisis never said that the country was in a housing bubble until after the bubble burst. Same is true with the dot com bubble.

This time is different in several ways.

Longer period preceding a recession. At this point the last recession was 11 years ago and independent economists all agree that we are overdue for a recession. The longer we wait before it comes, the worse it will be when it gets here.

This bubble has no actual source which can be applied as a label. Where previous recessions had labels, this one truly cannot have an accurate label. The truth is that previous recessions may have had labels named after the trigger events but each recession was far more complex than any single trigger. Prior to the Oil Crisis of the 70’s, the auto manufacturing business had been in decline in the US, caused by a slowing economy leading to fewer vehicle sales. Prior to the Dot Com crash, employment in the non-tech sector was sluggish, partly (but not exclusively) caused by the Clinton welfare reform. The coming recession may ultimately be labeled as…