Stocks Rise, Oil Tanks

On Monday, 4/6/2020, the DOW again rose by over +1600 points. Interesting that should happen when we are in the lowest sales point of the crisis brought on by the pandemic and oil..

On the same day, OPEC and OPEC+ were originally scheduled to hold a meeting, which was delayed over the weekend by Saudi Arabia. The meeting is now expected to be held on Thursday this week.

However, that meeting is no reason for an increase in the stock market. In fact, it would be reason for a further decline in the market. As of now, it is expected that Saudi Arabia and other OPEC/OPEC+ states will agree to reduce production by a cumulative total of 10 million barrels per day (bpd). Russia has agreed to reduce production by 1 million bpd on one condition- that the US also decrease production.

There are a number of points regarding this to consider. Trump made a statement agreeing to reduce oil production. Russia’s oil industry is state-owned and managed, so when the Russian government agrees to reduce production, they can make that commitment. The same is true with Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and nearly every member state of OPEC/OPEC+. The reverse is true of the US. The oil industry in the US is owned and run by corporations. While the president can request that they reduce production, without legislation regulating the oil industry, he cannot order them to reduce production. So any promise he may make to other world leaders means nothing in this regard.